Bitcoin rămâne mai puțin valoros, pe fondul tensiunilor generate de conflictul din Iran — Analize de piață

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0802 ET - Bitcoin remains under pressure along with other cryptocurrencies as the Middle East conflict shows no signs of abating. U.S. officials said Iran placed mines in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, leading President Trump to threaten escalating attacks. The news lifts oil prices and dents risk appetite. Oil prices had pulled back earlier after the WSJ reported that the International Energy Agency has proposed the largest-ever release of oil reserves and following a now-deleted social media post from Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying the U.S. escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin falls 1.1% to $69,478, LSEG data show. Ether drops 1.1% to $2,022. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0756 ET - Markets will watch U.S. inflation data due at 1230 GMT for insights on the possible timing of future interest-rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank strategists say in a note. Energy supply disruptions due to the Middle East conflict have reignited concerns about inflation and led investors to lower their expectations of rate cuts. Money markets price a 99% chance of the Fed keeping interest rates on hold during the March 18 rate decision and a rate cut isn't fully priced in until September or October, LSEG data show. Wednesday's inflation data "will help shape expectations for subsequent interest rate decisions," the strategists say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0714 ET - The cost of insuring euro credit against default rises due to fears that the ongoing Middle East war will have lasting impacts on global inflation and economic growth. Reports indicating that Iran may be laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns that energy supply disruptions could extend beyond the war, leading to a deterioration in market sentiment, AJ Bell's Dan Coatsworth says in a note. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 7 basis points to 281bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. The iTraxx Europe Main index of euro investment-grade CDS climbs 2bps to 60bps. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0708 ET - War in the Middle East is threatening the ECB's "good place," ING's Carsten Brzeski says. With energy prices spiking, any talk of rate cuts is off the table, he says. The ECB's thinking could be shaped by its misjudgment of the 2022 energy-price shock as transitory. But the situation now is clearly different, Brzeski notes. "At the current juncture, the risk of a wage-price spiral looks small." Still, a "forever-war" scenario could force the ECB's hand, prompting one or two rate hikes. ING doesn't anticipate any rate moves at the ECB's March 19 meeting but also expects no mention of a "good place." Instead, the central bank is likely to employ a hawkish tone to keep inflation expectations at bay, displaying a readiness to hike rates if necessary, Brzeski says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0703 ET - Upcoming U.S. inflation data for February are unlikely to have much impact on the dollar even if consumer prices eased more than expected, Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke says in a note. The market is focused on the inflationary implications of the oil price shock stemming from the Iran war, she says. However, the rise in oil prices won't be reflected much in the February figures with inflation likely to fall further, she says. "With each passing day of the Iran conflict, the price risks and the knock-on effect on the U.S. inflation rate are increasing." The data are due at 1230 GMT. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 98.942. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0656 ET - Sterling could suffer a downward correction against the euro as its latest appreciation looks stretched, ING analyst Francesco Pesole says in a note. Oil prices easing from highs above $100 per barrel could also encourage markets to price in a higher chance of further Bank of England interest-rate cuts this year, he says. Markets currently see little chance of a rate cut this year, having expected two cuts before the Iran war pushed energy prices higher. This repricing and the resilience of U.K. equity markets have boosted sterling, he says. ING expects the euro to rise back to 0.8700 pounds. The euro falls 0.2% to a five-week low of 0.8629 pounds, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0620 ET - Germany's final inflation figures for February reflect a calm before the storm, Claus Vistesen at Pantheon Macroeconomics says in a note. Headline inflation fell to 1.9%, from 2.1% in January, in line with consensus and the initial estimate. "These data are on the softer side, but that is about to change dramatically as the energy shock filters through to consumer prices," Vistesen says. Pantheon expects German inflation to rise 0.4 percentage points in March to 2.3%, reflecting a jump in energy inflation to 2.2%, after minus 2.5% in February. It sees inflation pushing to just under 3% by the summer. "Our current forecast for eurozone inflation in March is 2.4%, up from 2.2% last week after the initial surge in energy prices," Vistesen says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0617 ET - The dollar turns higher as growing concerns over the Iran war lift oil prices and boost safe-haven assets. The dollar fell earlier as oil price eased after the WSJ said the International Energy Agency proposed the largest-ever release of oil reserves and following a now-deleted social media post from Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying the U.S. escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz. However, President Trump has threatened to escalate attacks after news Iran placed mines in the Strait of Hormuz, triggering renewed risk aversion and higher oil prices. Rising oil prices reduce the prospect of U.S. rate cuts and support the U.S. terms of trade as an oil exporter. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 98.982. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0614 ET - India's consumer inflation likely accelerated to 3.1% on year in February from 2.75% in January, according to the median estimate of nine economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Barclays economists expect food price normalization and unfavorable base effects to push headline CPI inflation higher in February. Vegetable prices are not falling as quickly, cereal prices remain elevated and gold is adding upward pressure on the newly rebased consumer price index, Moody's Analytics says in a note. The data is due Thursday. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0530 ET - Markets could price out the prospect of the European Central Bank raising interest rates but this won't necessarily weaken the euro, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. Higher energy prices stemming from the Iran war have prompted markets to price in a 25 basis-point rate rise by year-end, having previously expected unchanged rates, LSEG data show. While the chance of a rate rise looks low, ECB policy expectations are having very little impact on the euro, Pesole says. Oil prices remain the "absolute primary driver." A WSJ report that the International Energy Agency is planning the largest-ever release of oil reserves could keep the euro above $1.60 temporarily, he says. The euro trades flat at $1.1607. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0517 ET - Diversifying energy supply away from the Middle East and investing in domestic production, storage and renewables is likely the most sustainable policy response to the current energy price shock, Capital Economics says in a note. Senior Asia economist Gareth Leather says inflation-suppressing measures, such as subsidies in Indonesia or price caps in Korea and Taiwan, provide limited incentives for energy conservation and are fiscally costly. Countries with weaker fiscal positions may instead pass higher costs to consumers, as seen in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, though this could lift inflation, weigh on growth and heighten risks of social unrest. Leather also notes that some governments are trying to curb demand directly, though rationing energy rather than relying on price signals would allocate supply inefficiently and disrupt economic activity. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0515 ET - Airports in India could face near-term traffic volatility if the West Asian airspace disruption persists, Fitch Ratings writes in a commentary. West Asia is an important and sizeable source of air traffic into India and a hub for Europe- and U.S.-bound connectivity, which would be sensitive to continued closure or restriction of the airspace. "This could reduce rated Indian airports' traffic through cancellations, diversions and longer flying times," Fitch Ratings says. Airports have buffer to manage such short-lived disruptions, but a prolonged airspace closure would raise downside risks to their revenue and margins.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

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